As investors navigate the ever-shifting landscape of stock market dynamics, one area that demands attention is corporate earnings—specifically those that may not meet expectations, which can lead to significant declines in share prices. In recent months, Wall Street has been progressively downgrading growth estimates for the third quarter, raising concerns about the financial outlook of numerous companies.
According to the latest findings from FactSet, the current projections for earnings growth in the S&P 500 index have plummeted from an anticipated 7.8% as of June 30 down to just 4.2%. This decline in expectations is a common trend as companies approach earnings season; however, the downward revisions over the past months have led to heightened scrutiny. So far, nearly 10% of S&P 500 firms have disclosed their earnings, with a commendable 79% managing to surpass estimates. Nevertheless, these upbeat results may mask underlying vulnerabilities, particularly for companies that have had their earnings forecasts cut significantly.
In an effort to pinpoint companies poised for potential disappointment, CNBC Pro utilized FactSet data to flag S&P 500 stocks due to report earnings next week that have seen earnings estimates slashed by at least 10% in recent months. Two companies that have emerged prominently on this list are Valero Energy and Enphase Energy, both of which face daunting challenges in meeting lowered expectations.
Valero Energy, set to announce its earnings on October 24, has observed a staggering 80.3% cut in analyst estimates for earnings per share (EPS) within the last three months. Even more alarming is the 85% reduction in estimates over the previous six months, which signals a desperate need for the company to reassure investors. Despite this, Valero retains favor among 60% of Wall Street analysts, including Morgan Stanley’s Joe Laetsch, who has maintained an “overweight” rating on the stock. Laetsch projects a price target of $165, hinting at a potential uptick of 22.5% from current levels. He cites Valero’s strong position in a constrained refining market, supported by its well-managed asset base, as contributing factors to its projected free cash flow as the industry stabilizes.
Conversely, Enphase Energy has also found itself in a challenging predicament, with analyst EPS estimates slashed by nearly 39% in the last quarter and 35.5% over the preceding half-year. This downturn comes as RBC Capital Markets analyst Christopher Dendrinos downgraded his outlook on Enphase to “sector perform” from “outperform.” He reduced his price target by $25 to $100, indicating an 8.6% upside potential for a beleaguered stock that has already declined by 30% year-to-date. Dendrinos’ pessimism stems from concerns regarding Enphase’s growth prospects, particularly as demand in the residential solar market slows and third-party ownership models become more prevalent—an area in which the company is grappling for market share against competitors.
The situation appears similarly precarious for electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla, slated to release its earnings on October 23. After disappointing delivery figures in the third quarter and failing to thrill investors with a recently hyped robotaxi concept, Tesla faces a particularly challenging earnings report. In light of decreasing confidence, analysts have downgraded EPS estimates by 24.1% in the past three months and 30.8% over the last half-year. Of the analysts covering Tesla, only 34.5% proffer a “buy” rating, while firms like Wells Fargo have adopted a more cautious stance, reiterating an “underweight” rating and predicting a significant miss on third-quarter expectations.
The downward trajectory of earnings estimates serves as a clarion call for investors to remain vigilant. The companies mentioned—including Valero, Enphase, and Tesla—illustrate the complexities surrounding earnings releases, acting as a reminder that while some firms can beat expectations, others may struggle to meet already lowered forecasts. As the earnings season unfolds, investors should take a measured approach, remaining aware that even overwhelmingly positive performance across the S&P 500 may not entirely mask the risks associated with earnings disappointments. Thus, scrutiny and critical assessment are paramount when evaluating the health of potential stock investments in these turbulent times.